The Climate Prediction Center is calling for a warmer-than-normal, more mild fall across the northeast, but the return of La Niña could complicate the outlook for winter.
La Niña winters often bring more frequent swings in the jet stream, opening the door for bursts of colder air and stormier periods that might not be reflected in the broad seasonal outlook.
Forecasters expect a transition from standard ocean temperatures to La Niña, with a 71% chance by December, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
La Niña tends to shift the jet stream northward. For the Northeast, this historically means colder-than-average temperatures and above-average snowfall. It also increases the likelihood of polar air intrusions — when the polar vortex, a ring of strong winds that normally keeps Arctic air bottled up near the North Pole, weakens or wobbles, allowing frigid air to spill south into the United States, often bringing freezing temperatures and significant snowfall.
A La Niña typically brings colder and potentially snowier winters to Massachusetts, with increased cold snaps and a greater chance of intense winter storms due to a shifting storm track and more frequent access of Arctic air. Temperatures can be variable, but there's an increased risk of below-average readings, especially in the early winter months. Precipitation patterns are also varied, with a tendency for more frequent but intense snowfall events alongside dry periods.
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